A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications

Chris J. Lloyd, Raymond Kwok and Paul S. F. Yip

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2019, vol. 182, issue 3, 863-886

Abstract: The consequences of reduced fertility and mortality on the age distribution are an issue for most developed countries, but especially for the ‘Asian tiger’ economies. We use functional data analysis forecasting techniques to project the population of Hong Kong. Our projections include error estimates that allow for forecasting error as well as exogenous variations of fertility and migration numbers. We separate out the effects of pure demographic shifts from projected behavioural changes in labour force participation. This enables us to look at the kinds of changes in labour force participation that would be required to offset the aging effects that we estimate.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:182:y:2019:i:3:p:863-886

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