Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication

Glenn Shafer

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2021, vol. 184, issue 2, 407-431

Abstract: The most widely used concept of statistical inference—the p‐value—is too complicated for effective communication to a wide audience. This paper introduces a simpler way of reporting statistical evidence: report the outcome of a bet against the null hypothesis. This leads to a new role for likelihood, to alternatives to power and confidence, and to a framework for meta‐analysis that accommodates both planned and opportunistic testing of statistical hypotheses and probabilistic forecasts. This framework builds on the foundation for mathematical probability developed in previous work by Vladimir Vovk and myself.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12647

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:184:y:2021:i:2:p:407-431

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-985X

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples

More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().