Modelling non‐linear age‐period‐cohort effects and covariates, with an application to English obesity 2001–2014

Zoë Fannon, Christiaan Monden and Bent Nielsen

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2021, vol. 184, issue 3, 842-867

Abstract: We develop an age‐period‐cohort model for repeated cross‐section data with individual covariates, which identifies the non‐linear effects of age, period and cohort. This is done for both continuous and binary dependent variables. The age, period and cohort effects in the model are represented by a parametrization with freely varying parameters that separates the identified non‐linear effects and the unidentifiable linear effects. We develop a test of the parametrization against a more general ‘time‐saturated’ model. The method is applied to analyse the obesity epidemic in England using survey data. The main non‐linear effects we find in English obesity data are age‐related among women and cohort‐related among men.

Date: 2021
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https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12685

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