 Multilevel time series modelling of mobility trends in the Netherlands for small domainsHarm Jan Boonstra, Jan van den Brakel and Sumonkanti Das Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2021, vol. 184, issue 3, 985-1007 Abstract: The purpose of the Dutch Travel Survey is to produce reliable estimates on mobility of the Dutch population. In this paper mobility trends are estimated at several aggregation levels, using multilevel time series models. The models account for discontinuities induced by two survey redesigns and outliers due to less reliable outcomes in one particular year. The input for the model is direct annual estimates with their standard errors for the period 1999–2017 for a detailed cross‐classification in 504 domains. Appropriate transformations for the direct estimates and generalized variance functions to smooth the standard errors of the direct estimates are proposed. The models are fitted in an hierarchical Bayesian framework using MCMC simulations. From the model outputs smooth trend estimates are computed at the most detailed domain level. Predictions at higher aggregation levels obtained by aggregation of the most detailed domain predictions result in a numerically consistent set of trend estimates for all target variables. Date: 2021 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:184:y:2021:i:3:p:985-1007 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC. |
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