Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain

Jose M. Pavía and Josep Lledó

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2022, vol. 185, issue 2, 471-497

Abstract: Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra‐annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub‐annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and day) of events, concurrently accounts for ageing and calendar fluctuations. This paper also shows how modelling the intra‐annual variations of death rates, through specific seasonal–ageing indexes, can be used as a tool for constructing new sub‐annual tables from annual tables. This new methodology is exemplified using a real database of Spain made up of 186 million demographic events (1.5 million of which are deaths), from which seasonal–ageing indexes are estimated and conclusions drawn. First, seasonal effects are, as a rule, stronger than ageing effects. For a given integer age, season has a higher impact on increasing or decreasing the average risk of death at that age than the actual age of the exposed‐to‐risk. Second, the intensity of the effects varies among seasons and age‐quarters. Third, neither seasonal nor ageing effects are age‐stationary. Their impact, be it to varying degrees, intensifies as people get older. Fourth, there is interaction between seasonal and ageing effects. In short, life expectancies and probabilities of dying/surviving not only depend on people's age, but also on when their birthday falls within the year. This has implications, for instance, in managing pension systems or for insurance companies.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12769

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:185:y:2022:i:2:p:471-497

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-985X

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A is currently edited by A. Chevalier and L. Sharples

More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().