 Criteria for surrogate end pointsHua Chen, Zhi Geng and Jinzhu Jia Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 2007, vol. 69, issue 5, 919-932 Abstract: Summary. A surrogate end point is often used to evaluate the effects of treatments or exposures on the true end point in medical researches. Various criteria for the statistical surrogate, principal surrogate and strong surrogate have been proposed. We first illustrate that, with a surrogate end point that is defined by these criteria, it is possible that a treatment has a positive effect on the surrogate, which in turn has a positive effect on the true end point, but the treatment has a negative effect on the true end point. We define such a phenomenon as a surrogate paradox. The surrogate paradox also means that the sign of the treatment effect on the true end point is unpredictable by the effect signs of both the treatment on the surrogate and the surrogate on the true end point. Then we propose two notions for a consistent surrogate and a strictly consistent surrogate to avoid the surrogate paradox. With the causal network that was presented by Lauritzen, we discuss the conditions for a strong surrogate to be a consistent surrogate and a strictly consistent surrogate. Date: 2007 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:69:y:2007:i:5:p:919-932 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B is currently edited by P. Fryzlewicz and I. Van Keilegom More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC. |
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