The Statistics of Hospital Admission Systems

J. F. Bithell

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1969, vol. 18, issue 2, 119-129

Abstract: The paper presents two models for the study of hospital admission systems, based on the theory of Markov processes. In the first, for deterministic (“planned”) admissions, the dependence of occupancy variability on length of stay variability is examined and found to obey an approximate square root law. In the second, continuous appraisal of the current bed‐state takes place, on the basis of which new (waiting‐list) patients are scheduled. The variance of occupancy is found to be the sum of two components, representing the variability due to emergency admissions and that due to the unpredictability of discharges. The effect of patient assessment on the latter component is examined. The models are compared and their implications are discussed.

Date: 1969
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