Congestion and the Speed of Traffic on Trunk Roads

J. S. Wabe

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1970, vol. 19, issue 1, 42-49

Abstract: The paper outlines a possible measure of congestion on trunk roads involving the deviations between the tail of an observed distribution and the tail of a Poisson distribution with mean equal to that of the observed distribution. It is suggested that variations in congestion are a prime cause of variations in average speed. It is shown that the usually accepted variables of traffic flow and traffic composition account for only a small part of variations in average speed. The level of congestion is shown to be a critical variable, as is the speed at which the queues of congested vehicles are travelling. An attempt is made to establish the causes of congestion, and it is suggested that especially heavy or long commercial vehicles may be primarily responsible.

Date: 1970
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