An Analysis of Residual Error in the Quarterly National Accounts of the U.K

John McDonald

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1973, vol. 22, issue 3, 354-367

Abstract: The Residual Error item in the National Accounts is the difference between the largely independent estimates of G.D.P. from income and expenditure sources. In the paper an analysis is made of the Residual Error at the quarterly level. its behaviour does not correspond to that of a realization from a white noise source but exhibits seasonal characteristics. These are summarized by fitting an autoregressive moving average model to the series. The effect of revisions on the Residual Error series is examined and an analysis is made of the Residual Error series constructed from seasonally adjusted data.

Date: 1973
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