The Determination of the Optimum Position on a Ballot Paper

G. J. G. Upton and D. Brook

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1975, vol. 24, issue 3, 279-287

Abstract: It is known that the position of a candidate's name on a ballot paper affects his chances of success. In multi‐seat elections it is possible to eliminate the effect of party differences by considering the party groups separately. If the ordered within‐party outcome is expressed as a permutation of the positions on the ballot paper, then, because certain positions are favoured by the voter, the probabilities of these permutations are not all equal. In this paper, a model is described, which allocates probabilities to the various permutations. The model is applied to two independent sets of results from recent elections. It is found that certain apparent anomalies in these results are explained by the model, and that, contrary to general expectation, for the elections studied, it is the second position on the ballot paper which is most favoured.

Date: 1975
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