A Method of Re‐interpreting Promotion Rates in Terms of Promotion Prospectuses

D. G. Jones

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1978, vol. 27, issue 1, 58-66

Abstract: This paper describes briefly a model (the kent model) for the manpower planning of hierarchical organizations which was developed for use in the Civil Service Department. It is probably the most useful and most frequently used of the Civil Service Department's manpower models. It nevertheless has certain shortcomings which are described herein. One of these shortcomings is that its output is in the form of promotion rates which allow no insight into likely waiting times before promotion. The paper provides a method of converting this raw output into a form where waiting times can be examined. Such an expression of promotion prospects in terms of waiting times will here be called a “promotion prospectus”.

Date: 1978
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