Biothermal Development: A Model for Predicting the Distribution of Emergence Times of Diapausing Heliothis Armigera

R. B. Cunningham, T. Lewis and A. G. L. Wilson

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1981, vol. 30, issue 2, 132-140

Abstract: Laboratory data on the time to termination of diapause and the subsequent time to emergence of the Heliothis armigera moth have been analysed in relation to temperature. Excluding the data observed at 18 °C, the times to termination of diapause follow a geometric distribution and the subsequent times to emergence are approximately uniform over a small range of about three days. Based on these results a model has been developed for the prediction of the distribution of moth emergence times in a situation of continuously varying temperatures, i.e. in the field situation. The predictions compare well with the observed emergence in each of the five years 1974–78. This study provides empirical evidence to support the theory that break of diapause is a dual process; potentiation of development is a random exponential process and development itself is a deterministic process. Both mechanisms are assumed to be dependent only on temperature.

Date: 1981
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