An Extreme‐Value Model for Predicting the Results of Horse Races

R. J. Henery

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1984, vol. 33, issue 2, 125-133

Abstract: Results of horse races in 1979–80 are analysed to see if the extreme‐value distribution can model the times to run horse races: horses with the same bookmakers' odds of winning are classed as one group; the distribution of times for each group is extreme‐value with location parameter β depending on the win odds; and the scale parameter 8 is common to all groups. The model predicts that the win probability p for the group is p = exp ((β0 – β)/θ) for some constant β0, and this is borne out by the data. Only the tail of the empirical distribution functions is consistent with the model; however, it is essentially this tail which determines the win probabilities, so if the aim is to do just that the model will serve a useful purpose.

Date: 1984
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