The Shrinkage of Point Scoring Methods

J. B. Copas

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1993, vol. 42, issue 2, 315-331

Abstract: Point scoring, widely used in criminology and other social sciences, is a simple way of predicting a binary response on the basis of binary explanatory variables. Like all statistical predictors they are liable to shrinkage, working less well on a validation sample than they appear to do on the original data. The paper examines the extent of shrinkage and proposes shrinkage‐adjusted predictions. The related 'independence Bayes' method is also considered, and found to shrink more than the basic point scoring method. The results are applied to data from a cohort study in the development of delinquency.

Date: 1993
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