Uncertainty in Expert Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Forest Plans

Juha M. Alho, Jyrki Kangas and Osmo Kolehmainen

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 1996, vol. 45, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: This paper examines the consistency between expert predictions concerning the ecological effects of forest plans. Maximizing economic yield is no longer the single overriding goal of forestry; landscape and recreational values must also be considered. to optimize the choice of forest plan the various objectives must be made commensurable. The analytical hierarchy process provides one approach to the problem, but usually without a statistical assessment of the uncertainty of the results. An alternative approach using variance components modelling, which provides quantitative estimates of the uncertainties, is derived. The methods are compared by using a case‐study in which several experts were asked to predict how different forest plans influence the forest as a habitat of black grouse, a valued game‐bird. Although complex computer simulations were carried out to aid the experts in their task, there is considerable variation in the views of the various experts, and also considerable internal inconsistencies in individual views. The quantitative estimates of the uncertainties suggest that the results of the expert elicitation must be used with caution in the decision‐making process.

Date: 1996
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