 Simulation and extremal analysis of hurricane eventsE. Casson and S. Coles Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2000, vol. 49, issue 3, 227-245 Abstract: In regions affected by tropical storms the damage caused by hurricane winds can be catastrophic. Consequently, accurate estimates of hurricane activity in such regions are vital. Unfortunately, the severity of events means that wind speed data are scarce and unreliable, even by standards which are usual for extreme value analysis. In contrast, records of atmospheric pressures are more complete. This suggests a two‐stage approach: the development of a model describing spatiotemporal patterns of wind field behaviour for hurricane events; then the simulation of such events, using meteorological climate models, to obtain a realization of associated wind speeds whose extremal characteristics are summarized. This is not a new idea, but we apply careful statistical modelling for each aspect of the model development and simulation, taking the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines of the USA as our study area. Moreover, we address for the first time the issue of spatial dependence in extremes of hurricane events, which we find to have substantial implications for regional risk assessments. Date: 2000 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:49:y:2000:i:3:p:227-245 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C is currently edited by R. Chandler and P. W. F. Smith More articles in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C from Royal Statistical Society Contact information at EDIRC. |
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