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A simple monotone process with application to radiocarbon‐dated depth chronologies

John Haslett and Andrew Parnell

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2008, vol. 57, issue 4, 399-418

Abstract: Summary. We propose a new and simple continuous Markov monotone stochastic process and use it to make inference on a partially observed monotone stochastic process. The process is piecewise linear, based on additive independent gamma increments arriving in a Poisson fashion. An independent increments variation allows very simple conditional simulation of sample paths given known values of the process. We take advantage of a reparameterization involving the Tweedie distribution to provide efficient computation. The motivating problem is the establishment of a chronology for samples taken from lake sediment cores, i.e. the attribution of a set of dates to samples of the core given their depths, knowing that the age–depth relationship is monotone. The chronological information arises from radiocarbon (14C) dating at a subset of depths. We use the process to model the stochastically varying rate of sedimentation.

Date: 2008
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x

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