Emulating and calibrating the multiple-fidelity Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry magnetosphere–ionosphere coupled computer model

Matthew J. Heaton, William Kleiber, Stephan R. Sain and Michael Wiltberger

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2015, vol. 64, issue 1, 93-113

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="rssc12064-abs-0001">

The Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry global magnetosphere–ionosphere coupled model LFM-MIX is used to study Sun–Earth interactions by simulating geomagnetic storms. This work focuses on relating the multifidelity output from LFM-MIX to field observations of ionospheric conductance. Given a set of input values and solar wind data, LFM-MIX numerically solves the magnetohydrodynamic equations and outputs a bivariate spatiotemporal field of ionospheric energy and flux. Of particular interest here are LFM-MIX input settings required to match corresponding output with field observations. To estimate these input settings, a multivariate spatiotemporal statistical LFM-MIX emulator is constructed. The statistical emulator leverages the multiple fidelities such that the less computationally demanding yet lower fidelity LFM-MIX is used to provide estimates of the higher fidelity output. The higher fidelity LFM-MIX output is then used for calibration by using additive and non-linear discrepancy functions.

Date: 2015
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