Stratified space–time infectious disease modelling, with an application to hand, foot and mouth disease in China

Cici Bauer and Jon Wakefield

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2018, vol. 67, issue 5, 1379-1398

Abstract: We extend an interesting class of space–time models for infectious disease data proposed by Held and co‐workers, to analyse data on hand, foot and mouth disease, collected in the central north region of China over 2009–2011. We provide a careful derivation of the model and extend the model class in two directions. First, we model the disease transmission between age–gender strata, in addition to space and time. Second, we use our model for inference on effective local reproductive numbers. For the hand, foot and mouth data, for each of the six age–gender strata we consider that transmission is greatest between individuals within the same strata, with also relatively high transmission between individuals of the same age group but the opposite gender. The local reproductive numbers show strong seasonality, and between‐area differences.

Date: 2018
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