Finding your feet: A Gaussian process model for estimating the abilities of batsmen in test cricket

Oliver G. Stevenson and Brendon J. Brewer

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2021, vol. 70, issue 2, 481-506

Abstract: In the sport of cricket, a player’s batting ability is traditionally measured using the batting average. However, the batting average fails to measure both short‐term changes in ability that occur during an innings and long‐term changes in ability that occur between innings due to factors such as age and experience in various match conditions. We derive and fit a Bayesian parametric model that employs a Gaussian process to measure and predict how the batting abilities of cricket players vary and fluctuate over the course of entire playing careers. The results allow us to better quantify and predict the batting ability of a player, compared with both traditional cricket statistics, such as the batting average, and more complex models, such as the official International Cricket Council ratings.

Date: 2021
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