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Estimation of the size of informal employment based on administrative records with non‐ignorable selection mechanism

Maciej Berȩsewicz and Dagmara Nikulin

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 2021, vol. 70, issue 3, 667-690

Abstract: In this study, we used company level administrative data from the National Labour Inspectorate and The Polish Social Insurance Institution in order to estimate the prevalence of informal employment in Poland in 2016. Since the selection mechanism is non‐ignorable, we employed a generalization of Heckman’s sample selection model assuming non‐Gaussian correlation of errors and clustering by incorporation of random effects. We found that 5.7% (4.6%, 7.1%; 95% CI ) of registered enterprises in Poland, to some extent, take advantage of the informal labour force. Our study exemplifies a new approach to measuring informal employment, which can be implemented in other countries. It also contributes to the existing literature by providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first estimates of informal employment at the level of companies based solely on administrative data.

Date: 2021
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C is currently edited by R. Chandler and P. W. F. Smith

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