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DO FLOODS HAVE PERMANENT EFFECTS? EVIDENCE FROM THE NETHERLANDS

Trond G. Husby, Henri de Groot (), Marjan Hofkes () and Martijn Dröes ()

Journal of Regional Science, 2014, vol. 54, issue 3, 355-377

Abstract: type="main"> This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs.

Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Do Floods have Permanent Effects? Evidence from the Netherlands (2013) Downloads
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