ALARM CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WITH DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS

Stig‐Inge Beckman, Jan Holst and Georg Lindgren

Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1990, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Abstract. A method for evaluating a predictor‐based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a ‘deterministic’ component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold:it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water‐level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the catastrophe.

Date: 1990
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