ESTIMATION OF COEFFICIENTS OF TIME SERIES REGRESSION WITH A NONSTATIONARY ERROR PROCESS

Yoshihiro Usami and Mituaki Huzii

Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1995, vol. 16, issue 1, 105-118

Abstract: Abstract. We treat a problem of estimating unknown coefficients of a time series regression when the variance of the error changes with time, i.e. when a process which the error term obeys is nonstationary. First, we show the weak consistency of the ordinary least squares estimator for the coefficients of a polynomial regression under some assumptions on the covariance structure of the error process. Next, we propose a nonparametric method for estimating the variance of the error process and a weighted least squares estimator of the regression coefficients, which is constructed by using the estimator of the variance. We investigate statistical properties of our proposed estimator in the following way. We consider the prediction of a future value of a linear trend by using our proposed estimator and evaluate its prediction error. By simulation studies, we compare the prediction error of the predictor constructed by using our proposed estimator with the prediction errors obtained for other estimators including the ordinary least squares estimator when the variance of the error process increases with time and the sample sizes are small. As a result, our proposed estimator seems to be reasonable.

Date: 1995
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