Long‐Memory Errors in Time Series Regressions with a Unit Root

Diego Lubian

Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1999, vol. 20, issue 5, 565-577

Abstract: This paper is concerned with estimation and inference in univariate time series regression with a unit root when the error sequence exhibits long‐range temporal dependence. We consider generating mechanisms for the unit root process which include models with or without a drift term and we study the limit behavior of least squares statistics in regression models without drift and trend, with drift but no time trend, and with drift and time trend. We derive the limit distribution and rate of convergence of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of the unit root, the intercept and the time trend in the three regression models and for the two different data‐generating processes. The limiting distributions for the OLS estimator differ from those obtained under the hypothesis of weakly dependent errors not only in terms of the limiting process involved but also in terms of functional form. Further, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of both the t statistics for testing the unit root hypothesis and the t statistic for the intercept and time trend coefficients. We find that t ratios either diverge to infinity or collapse to zero. The limiting behavior of Phillips's Zα and Zt semiparametric corrections is also analyzed and found to be similar to that of standard Dickey– Fuller tests. Our results indicate that misspecification of the temporal dependence features of the error sequence produces major effects on the asymptotic distribution of estimators and t ratios and suggest that alternative approaches might be more suited to testing for a unit root in time series regression.

Date: 1999
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