INFLATION UND BESCHÄFTIGUNG: DER BEITRAG DER PHILLIPS‐KURVE*

Hans Jürgen Ramser

Kyklos, 1970, vol. 23, issue 3, 473-500

Abstract: The paper discusses the relevance of the so‐called Phillips‐curve to the existence of a trade‐off between employment and inflation. First, a critical analysis is provided of the main interpretations found in the literature on the Phillips‐curve (the relation between rate of change of wage rates and rate of employment). These interpretations are the competitive adjustment mechanism and the bargaining one. The bargaining theory seems to be more realistic. Starting from this point of view and related with well‐known assumptions about price formation, the conditions for the existence of disequilibrium trade‐off are formulated. It is shown that simple arguments of plausibility do not contribute much to the particularities of the trade‐off; a Phillips‐curve of a normal shape is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the existence of a positive correlation between employment and inflation. This unsatisfactory situation will be changed as soon as the assumption is being introduced that the process of wage‐price formation leads to a state of quasie quilibrium relatively quickly. The properties of this equilibrium trade‐off as a relation of (quasi)‐equilibrium combinations between rate of employment and inflation are exclusively a function of the several behaviours contained in the Phillips‐curve. In principle, however, only a part of this equilibrium trade‐off curve is compatible with an equilibrium position in respect to production decisions, too. Finally, the paper discusses the reasoning and conditions necessary for a limitation of this overall equilibrium position which under the assumptions made could be politically relevant.

Date: 1970
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