ERGEBNISSE EINER STATISTISGHEN ANALYSE DER ZEITLICHEN ENTWICKLUNG VON AKTIENKURSEN

Bernd Schips and Winfried Stier

Kyklos, 1972, vol. 25, issue 2, 255-265

Abstract: In addition to the papers of Granger and Morgenstern concerning the development of stock prices at the New York and London stock market, German stock prices were analyzed by means of the method of spectral analysis using both direct and indirect estimation procedures. It is shown that short‐run movements can suitably be described by the well‐known random‐walk model. In contrast, the long‐run movements show cycles corresponding to the business cycles in the Western German economy. One of the results of the phase analysis is the lead of the stock market against the general business activity.

Date: 1972
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