THE INFLATION PROCESS IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDIVIDUALLY AND COMBINED

George von Furstenberg, William H. White and Kellett W.Hannah

Kyklos, 1980, vol. 33, issue 2, 261-286

Abstract: This paper reports on technical studies of the determinants of inflation which were undertaken for the seven major industrial countries and Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland in two distinct expectational frameworks. Both are designed to account for the empirical fact that changes in the rate of growth of the money supply (M2) affect both actual and expected inflation with a lag distributed over several years. It is found that M2 velocity is strongly procyclical. Furthermore, the underlying course of inflation since 1960 was influenced not only by money supply growth, but also by the changed longrun behavior of velocity and potential output imparting additional inflationary bias in most countries.

Date: 1980
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