A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE KONDRATIEFF‐CYCLE

Casper Ewijk

Kyklos, 1982, vol. 35, issue 3, 468-499

Abstract: According to Kondratiefflong term economic growth in industrialized countries is characterized by a 40‐ to 60‐years‐long cycle. The existence of this cycle is much debated. This article presents a spectral analytic test of the long cycle on the basis of price and volume series for Great Britain, France, Germany and the United States. In addition, long cyclical relations between prices and production and the relations between these variables internationally are analyzed by means of cross spectral analysis. The results of these analyses seem to confirm the existence of a Kondratieff‐cycle in prices, but contradict the existence of a (simultaneous) long cycle in real variables.

Date: 1982
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