Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch

Peter Bergeijk

Kyklos, 2009, vol. 62, issue 4, 479-487

Abstract: Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse.

Date: 2009
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