EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Jumps into Democracy: Integrating the Short and Long Run in the Democratic Transition

Martin Paldam and Erich Gundlach ()

Kyklos, 2018, vol. 71, issue 3, 456-481

Abstract: When countries become wealthy, they become democracies. Using kernel regressions, we show that the long‐run path in the Polity index looks exactly like a transition curve. However, the literature lacks a short‐run model that can generate this path. We note that the main political regime index is constant for most years. However, the stability is interrupted by infrequent jumps that are often quite large. We argue that periods of constancy represent political status quo equilibria that need to be broken by a triggering event. We find that such events occur randomly; they cannot be explained by economic variables. But if an event causes a change in the regime, the jump is normally in the direction of the transition curve. Hence, the curve acts as an attractor for the jumps. This is a new finding that integrates the short and the long run of the Democratic Transition.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12177

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:3:p:456-481

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0023-5962

Access Statistics for this article

Kyklos is currently edited by Rene L. Frey

More articles in Kyklos from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2019-02-23
Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:3:p:456-481