Jumps into Democracy: Integrating the Short and Long Run in the Democratic Transition
Martin Paldam and
Erich Gundlach ()
Kyklos, 2018, vol. 71, issue 3, 456-481
When countries become wealthy, they become democracies. Using kernel regressions, we show that the long‐run path in the Polity index looks exactly like a transition curve. However, the literature lacks a short‐run model that can generate this path. We note that the main political regime index is constant for most years. However, the stability is interrupted by infrequent jumps that are often quite large. We argue that periods of constancy represent political status quo equilibria that need to be broken by a triggering event. We find that such events occur randomly; they cannot be explained by economic variables. But if an event causes a change in the regime, the jump is normally in the direction of the transition curve. Hence, the curve acts as an attractor for the jumps. This is a new finding that integrates the short and the long run of the Democratic Transition.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:3:p:456-481
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0023-5962
Access Statistics for this article
Kyklos is currently edited by Rene L. Frey
More articles in Kyklos from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().