EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Electoral Externalities in Federations – Evidence from German Opinion Polls

Xenia Frei, Sebastian Langer, Robert Lehmann () and Felix Roesel ()

Kyklos, 2020, vol. 73, issue 2, 227-252

Abstract: The performance of parties at the national level is likely to influence election results at the local level, and vice versa. However, researchers have not yet quantified those electoral externalities. We apply vector autoregressions with predetermined variables to new high‐frequency opinion poll data for the German state of Berlin, measuring voting intentions of Berlin voters for the state parliament and for the national parliament. Our results show that the impact of local politics on national elections has been drastically underestimated so far. Shocks in state parliament voting intentions influence national parliament voting intentions to the very same extent as vice versa. Externalities account for around 10% to 40% of the variation at the other level of government. Left‐wing parties interact somewhat more strongly between different levels of government than right‐wing parties, and effects are more persistent.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12222

Related works:
Working Paper: Electoral Externalities in Federations - Evidence from German Opinion Polls (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Electoral Externalities in Federations - Evidence from German Opinion Polls (2017) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:73:y:2020:i:2:p:227-252

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0023-5962

Access Statistics for this article

Kyklos is currently edited by Rene L. Frey

More articles in Kyklos from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-16
Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:73:y:2020:i:2:p:227-252