Uncertainty in the U.K. Monetary Aggregates: Modelling Data Revisions in Economic Time Series

Terence C Mills

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1987, vol. 55, issue 4, 337-52

Abstract: This paper provides measures of the extent and predictability of errors and revisions in the first published figures of monthly sterling M3 growth and bank lendin g. It finds that such first published figures are highly uncertain me asures of the "true" values of these series and concludes that, if monetary aggregates are to remain important to the U.K. financial mar kets, it is essential that the extent of the errors in them are both recgonized and quantified. Indeed, the publication of initial monetar y data should be accompanied by a "health warning" extolling users against placing unwarranted emphsis upon them. Copyright 1987 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:manch2:v:55:y:1987:i:4:p:337-52

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies from University of Manchester Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().