Are Fluctuations in U.K. Ouput Transitory or Permanent?

Terence C Mills

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1991, vol. 59, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: This paper considers whether fluctuations in U.K. output have been transitory or permanent. Annual data from 1855 and quarterly data from 1955 are employed and a variety of methods designed estimate the extent of persistence in time series are used. The results present something of a paradox. It is found shocks to output are highly persistent when recent quarterly data but when the long-run of annual data is split into sub-periods, with the years 1919-21 omitted, much less evidence of persistent is encountered. These findings are consistent with other recent evidence concerning the behavior of U.K. output and suggest that the structural shocks occurring to the economy at the end of the First World War altered the process generating output itself. Copyright 1991 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:manch2:v:59:y:1991:i:1:p:1-11

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