Economics at your fingertips  

Are the Treasury's Tax Revenue Forecasts Rational?

Barry Reilly () and Robert Witt ()

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1992, vol. 60, issue 4, 390-402

Abstract: This paper assesses the Treasury's tax revenue forecasts using the theory and econometric methods of rational expectations. Three categories of taxes are examined--income tax, customs and excise, and corporation tax. The hypotheses of weak and strong rationality are subjected to test in all three categories and only the income tax forecasts could be considered weakly rational. However, this set of forecasts is not found to be strongly rational. Overall, the Treasury forecasters are seen to perform poorly and this is particularly the case for the corporation tax category. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1992
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies from University of Manchester Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

Page updated 2020-04-08
Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:60:y:1992:i:4:p:390-402