Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies

Gabriel Sterne () and Tamim Bayoumi

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1995, vol. 63, issue 1, 23-51

Abstract: Structural vector autoregressions are used to distinguish between transitory (AD) disturbances to output and permanent (AS) disturbances. The results indicate that the two disturbances are of roughly equal importance in explaining fluctuations in growth and inflation across a wide range of OECD countries. A method of distinguishing the effects of each type of disturbance on output and prices is then outlined. This makes it possible to measure 'supply potential' for each economy. The authors find evidence of a steady decline in the rate of increase of supply potential over time, a view consistent with the 'catch up' theory of postwar economic growth. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1995
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Working Paper: Temporary cycles or volatile trends? Economic fluctuations in 21 OECD economies (1993)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:manch2:v:63:y:1995:i:1:p:23-51

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