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Core ERM Money Demand and Effects on Inflation

Marcel Cassard, Timothy D Lane and Paul Masson ()

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1997, vol. 65, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: This paper presents evidence supporting the existence of a stable money demand relationship for Germany plus a core group of countries--France, Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg--that have not realigned their parities against the deutsche mark since at least 1987. The predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate for French and German inflation is also examined; it is shown that the ERM aggregate is a better predictor of German inflation than the German monetary aggregate alone. Thus, the ERM money supply is a useful indicator for German monetary policy, even if the latter only focuses on achieving domestic inflation targets. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:65:y:1997:i:1:p:1-24