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Unit Roots and British Industrial Growth, 1923-92

David Greasley and Les Oxley ()

The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1997, vol. 65, issue 2, 192-212

Abstract: Statistical properties and historical characteristics of British industrial production are examined. Since 1922 production appears to follow a segmented trend stationary process. Prior historical information and recursive searching are used to identify discontinuities in 1973 and 1979, whereas World War II's impact was limited. The wartime shift to fuller employment was accompanied by a productivity crash and trend industrial growth changed little. The major shift in production trend was at the time of the 1973 oil shock. Discontinuity around 1979 took the form of a crash and accelerating productivity contributed to industrial employment collapsing to levels not experienced since the nineteenth century. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Date: 1997
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