Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India

Taoufik Bouachera and Mohammad Mazraati ()

OPEC Energy Review, 2007, vol. 31, issue 1, 27-51

Abstract: Motorisation in Asia is soaring with rapid growth in incomes non‐lin‐early. Even though car ownership per 1,000 population is still low in countries like China, India or Indonesia, escalating number of cars is affected by GDP growth among other infrastructural factors in a non‐linear manner. This quick growth in car ownership may represent a significant implication on road transport fuel demand. This paper forecasts the demand for road transport fuel in India. For this purpose, econometric models, based on time series data, are constructed as for a major factor affecting fuel demand in road transportation i.e. car ownership. Firstly the econometric car ownership model was attempted in this study, for projecting future car stock in India based on cross section time series technique. The car stock is modelled by using three functional forms, which are the logistic, quasi‐logistic and Gompertz curves. However, to take into consideration countries with different income levels in that part of the world, these models were estimated by using pooled data of seven Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India). Then, a set of fuel consumption scenarios were developed in order to make forecast until 2030. These scenarios were generated by taking into consideration car stock, fuel efficiency and the average distance travelled in India.

Date: 2007
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