Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks in oil-exporting countries: the role of institutions

Saeed Moshiri

OPEC Energy Review, 2015, vol. 39, issue 2, 222-246

Abstract: Many empirical studies on the oil price shock effects on the economies of oil-exporting countries have assumed a linear relationship between the shocks and macroeconomic variables, offering no insights on the dynamics of different types of shocks. The literature also assumes a homogeneous response to oil price shocks by oil-exporting countries. This paper investigates the non-linear effects of oil price shock on macroeconomic performance in the context of two groups of oil-exporting countries using a VAR model with price shocks estimated by a GARCH method. The model consists of oil price shocks and economic growth as two major variables of interest as well as intermediate variables such as investment, exchange rate, and inflation rate. The sample includes nine major oil-exporting countries, six developing and three developed countries, for the period 1970–2010. The results indicate that not all oil-exporting countries are alike in responding to oil shocks. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth; they do not have significant effect on economic growth in oil-exporting developed countries. The panel data estimation results also suggest that heterogeneous responses to oil price shocks in oil-exporting countries can be explained by differences in their institutional quality, particularly government effectiveness.

Date: 2015
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