Ein einheitliches Rentensystem für Ost‐ und Westdeutschland: Simulationsrechnungen zum Reformvorschlag des Sachverständigenrates

Axel Börsch‐Supan, Tabea Bucher‐Koenen, Martin Gasche and Christina Benita Wilke

Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2010, vol. 11, issue 1, 16-46

Abstract: Abstract: In its annual report 2008/2009, the Council of Economic Advisors came forward with a proposal how to unify the German pension system. In this paper, we quantify the effects of this proposal. We show that the direction and size of the effects largely depend on the development of future wages. In the most realistic case we assume that the average wages in East Germany remain a constant fraction of the average wage in the West over time. In this case, the Council's proposal only weakly affects the size of pensions in East and West Germany. Thus, the effect on the contribution rate to the pension system is also weak. On the contrary, if average wages in East and West fully converge in the future, this reform would lead to redistribution from pensioners in the East to pensioners in the West. In the most unrealistic case, where average wages in East and West Germany continue to diverge in the future, pensioners in both East and West Germany would be worse off with the reform. However, contribution rates to the pension system would be relatively lower, leading to redistribution from the old to the young.

Date: 2010
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