 Trends in Causes of Death in Low-Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality ProjectionsJohn Bongaarts Population and Development Review, 2014, vol. 40, issue 2, 189-212 Abstract: type="main"> This study examines the potential role that information about trends in causes of death could have in improving projections of mortality in low-mortality countries. The article first summarizes overall trends in mortality by cause since the middle of the twentieth century. Special attention is given to the crucial impact of the smoking epidemic on mortality and on cause-of-death patterns. The article then discusses the implications for projections and reaches two conclusions. First, mortality projections can be improved by taking into account the distorting effects of smoking. Mortality attributable to smoking has risen in the past but has now leveled off or declined, thus boosting improvements in life expectancy. Second, making cause-specific projections is not likely to be helpful. Trends in specific medical causes of death have exhibited discontinuities in the past, and future trends are therefore difficult to predict. Date: 2014 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:popdev:v:40:y:2014:i:2:p:189-212 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Population and Development Review is currently edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll More articles in Population and Development Review from The Population Council, Inc. |
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