Rethinking Global Food Demand for 2050

Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor and Nikhil D. Shankar

Population and Development Review, 2022, vol. 48, issue 4, 921-957

Abstract: Published estimates of 2050 food demand exhibit an enormous range of values. This paper projects a 50–60 percent increase in total global food demand between 2019 and 2050. Our analysis indicates a substantial slowing of rice demand, a growing share of palm oil in world fats and oils markets, and a continued shift to poultry as the dominant form of meat consumption. In contrast to most existing food models, we integrate fish consumption into the analysis of vegetable and animal protein and highlight the dangers of using commonly cited feed ratios for projecting feed grain demand. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of a commodity by region approach for understanding complexities in the world food system.

Date: 2022
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