FORECASTING MODELS FOR TOURISM DEMAND IN CITY DOMINATED AND COASTAL AREAS

Ann Clewer, Alan Pack and M. Thea Sinclair

Papers in Regional Science, 1990, vol. 69, issue 1, 31-42

Abstract: ABSTRACT The paper uses Structural time series models to forecast the demand for tourism by nationality in coastal and city‐dominated Spanish provinces. Intervention variables arc introduced lo take account of sudden shocks to tourism demand, such as the bombing of Libya and football's World Cup, The model demonstrates the considerable differences in demand by nationality, and in seasonably, which can occur at the sub‐national level. The Structural model generally provided more accurate forecasts than Box‐Jenkins models. The results indicate that, ceteris paribus, the tourism demand growth rates in the Spanish provinces considered are unlikely to revert to their previous high levels.

Date: 1990
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1990.tb01201.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:presci:v:69:y:1990:i:1:p:31-42

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