A CATASTROPHE THEORY OF URBANIZATION: FORMALIZATION AND TESTING

Emilio Casetti

Papers in Regional Science, 1993, vol. 72, issue 3, 203-220

Abstract: ABSTRACT The urbanization dynamic has been characterized by the persistence of very low urban populations in pre‐modern societies, followed by a dramatic increase in the rate of urbanization during what Kuznets called “modern economic growth,” in turn followed by a slowdown in the rates of urbanization in mature societies as the percent urban approaches the high nineties. This dynamic can be produced by the transition from a low level stable equilibrium to a high level stable equilibrium corresponding to a cusp catastrophe. In this paper, an economic theory yielding this type of dynamic is discussed, formalized, and then successfully tested using empirical data.

Date: 1993
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1993.tb01873.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:presci:v:72:y:1993:i:3:p:203-220

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