FORECASTING LOCATION TENDENCIES: AN APPLICATION TO THE EUROPEAN CASE

Jesus Mur and F. Javier Trivez

Papers in Regional Science, 1998, vol. 77, issue 3, 277-299

Abstract: ABSTRACT In this article an econometric model to forecast location tendencies is developed. This model is based on the hypothesis of disequilibrium in the relationship between location factors and industry, which allows one to distinguish between the optimal long‐run regional distribution and that which is actually observed. This structure is completed with the specification of an error correction mechanism, whose relevant prediction horizon is short‐term. The model is transformed into a prediction tool to forecast medium to long‐term location tendencies. The results with respect to the European case tend to favor the hypothesis of regional convergence, although at a lower rate than has been observed to date.

Date: 1998
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1998.tb00718.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:presci:v:77:y:1998:i:3:p:277-299

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