Probit model forecasts of national and state manufacturing and construction employment downturns*

Gary Shoesmith

Papers in Regional Science, 2005, vol. 84, issue 4, 531-552

Abstract: Abstract. This study extends Shoesmith (2003) by generating probit model forecasts of downturns in national and state manufacturing and construction employment, using average weekly hours in manufacturing (HRS) and housing permits (HP), respectively, as explanatory variables. In each case the yield spread (SPREAD) is used as an alternative to HRS or HP. The expected result is that HRS and HP are more effective than SPREAD in forecasting downturns in related sectors of employment. However, the estimation and forecast results for the nation and 50 states show that SPREAD is in general more useful than HRS and HP, primarily because of the short lead times provided by the leading indicators.

Date: 2005
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2005.00025.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:presci:v:84:y:2005:i:4:p:531-552

Access Statistics for this article

Papers in Regional Science is currently edited by Jouke van Dijk

More articles in Papers in Regional Science from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().