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Investigating the predictive capabilities of discrete choice models in the presence of spatial effects

Richard Robertson (), Gerald Nelson () and Alessandro (Alex) De Pinto ()

Papers in Regional Science, 2009, vol. 88, issue 2, 367-388

Abstract: Abstract Fully spatial treatments of discrete choice models are difficult to specify and can be computationally intense. Several ad hoc procedures have been proposed in the land use literature to mitigate the potential estimation problems caused by spatial effects. We investigate the consequences of different spatial effects for several of these non‐fully‐spatial approaches using Monte Carlo simulation of a binary choice and a real world example of land use on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. We find that there are few effects on categorical prediction and that inclusion of spatially lagged explanatory variables is the most effective procedure. Resumen Los enfoques totalmente espaciales de modelos de elección discreta son difíciles de especificar y su cálculo puede ser muy laborioso. En la literatura sobre uso del suelo se han propuesto varios procedimientos para el caso con el fin de mitigar los posibles problemas de estimación causados por efectos espaciales. Investigamos las consecuencias de diferentes efectos espaciales para varios de estos enfoques no totalmente espaciales, utilizando simulación de Monte Carlo de elección binaria y un ejemplo del mundo real de uso del suelo en la isla de Sumatra en Indonesia. Encontramos que existen pocos efectos sobre la predicción categórica y que la incorporación de variables explicativas espacialmente desfasadas es el procedimiento más efectivo.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00247.x

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