Coming undone: A spatial hazard analysis of urban form in American metropolitan areas

John I. Carruthers, Selma Lewis, Gerrit‐Jan Knaap and Robert Renner

Papers in Regional Science, 2010, vol. 89, issue 1, 65-88

Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the viability of using proportional hazard models to study spatial point patterns generated by urbanisation. The analysis demonstrates that the ‘spatial hazard’ framework is not only viable for studying urban form, but is extremely promising: the models do an excellent job of characterizing very different patterns of development, and they lend themselves directly to the kind of probative analysis needed to guide urban and regional policy. Compared to more traditional approaches to characterizing urban form – namely, density gradients – hazard models rest on a probabilistic worldview, and, so, they portray the built environment as a froth of stochastic transitions through which urban form unfolds in an irregular fashion until it at last comes undone. Several general conclusions and directions for future research follow from these findings. Resumen Este artículo explora la viabilidad del uso de modelos de riesgo proporcional para estudiar patrones de puntos espaciales generados por la urbanización. El análisis demuestra que el marco de “riesgo espacial” no es solo viable para el estudio de la forma urbana, sino que es extremadamente prometedor: los modelos hacen un trabajo excelente en caracterizar patrones de desarrollo muy diferentes, y se prestan directamente al tipo de análisis probatorio requerido para orientar las políticas urbanas y regionales. En comparación con los enfoques más tradicionales para caracterizar la forma urbana – es decir, gradientes de densidad – los modelos de riesgo se basan en una visión probabilística del mundo y, por tanto, representan el medio construido como una efervescencia de transiciones estocásticas a través de las cuales se despliega la forma urbana de manera irregular hasta que al final se despliega. A estos resultados le siguen varias conclusiones generales y orientación para futuras investigaciones.

Date: 2010
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00242.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:presci:v:89:y:2010:i:1:p:65-88

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