Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico

Gunnar Niels and Joseph Francois

Review of Development Economics, 2006, vol. 10, issue 3, 388-399

Abstract: Antidumping actions in the US and EU are known to be linked to macroeconomic conditions. In part, this is because positive injury findings may be easier to make in a downturn, increasing the chance of success for complainants. We explore the evidence for Mexico, one of the main “new” antidumping regimes. Injury determination is also critical in Mexico’s antidumping policy, as a majority of unsuccessful complaints have been rejected because of negative injury findings rather than negative findings of dumping. Working with data from 1987 to 2000, we provide evidence for a relationship between macroeconomic factors and antidumping complaints, including current account and exchange rate movements, and both local and global general macroeconomic conditions.

Date: 2006
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